Used Car Market Growth Slows After Strong 2024 – Cautious Outlook for 2025

The Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA), in partnership with AutoGrab, has released the 2024 Year That Was Automotive Insights Report (AIR), providing a comprehensive analysis of the Australian used car market. While the market experienced strong growth for most of 2024, momentum slowed in the final months, signalling a more measured outlook for 2025.

According to the report, total used car sales in 2024 reached 2,324,805 units, a 12.1 per cent increase compared to 2023. Sales peaked in July, with sustained demand throughout much of the year before easing towards the end. Listings, on the other hand, peaked in November, highlighting a softening in consumer demand relative to supply.

“AADA is pleased to publish the second annual release of the Year That Was AIR. The 2024 results highlight a dynamic used car market that showed strong growth through much of the year before slowing in the final quarter,” said AADA CEO James Voortman.

“While demand remains healthy, we are seeing signs of cooling, particularly in the latter months, as affordability pressures and economic factors come into play.”

Toyota remained the top-selling brand, with 390,298 used vehicles sold, followed by Mazda and Ford. Among individual models, the Ford Ranger led with 82,448 sales, ahead of the Toyota Hilux and Toyota Corolla.

“Profit margins tightened, and days to sell increased by 15 per cent for listings between August and October, further indicating a slowdown in demand. As we head further into 2025, we anticipate a more subdued market, with sales likely to stabilise rather than grow at the rapid pace we saw earlier in 2024,” said Mr Voortman.

“This is good news for those in the market for a used car, with opportunities for a good deal,” Mr Voortman added.

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EV Sentiment Cools Amid Cost Concerns

New research released today by the Australian Automotive Dealer Association, the EV & Hybrid Vehicle Wave 3 Insights Report, highlights that electric vehicle (EV) sentiment has remained largely stagnant since the previous survey about a year ago as economic pressures weigh on consumer decision-making.

The research is the third wave of tracking EV sentiments across the community, following similar studies conducted in September 2022 and January 2024, with feedback collected from a sample of 2,000 Australian drivers (representative by age, gender and household location across Australia).

“Intention to purchase an EV has plateaued with 39 per cent of respondents saying they would consider an EV for their next vehicle – largely unchanged from two years ago,” said AADA CEO James Voortman.

“Affordability remains the biggest barrier to EV adoption, with 55 per cent of respondents stating that EVs are simply too expensive, however, this has improved from 62 per cent in the first survey in September 2022, ” he said.

“Economic pressures are clearly influencing buyer behavior, with 64 per cent of respondents saying they are less willing to pay a premium for an EV due to current cost-of-living challenges. The average price premium consumers are willing to pay for an EV has dropped to just 6 per cent, down from 8 per cent in January 2024.”

“The research shows that respondents are more likely to consider traditional hybrids (52 per cent) than EVs (39 per cent) or plug-in hybrids (36 per cent), a finding which is backed up by current new car sales data.”

Other key findings from the report include:

  • While 58 per cent of respondents consider EVs are better for the environment, this has fallen from 67 per cent since early 2024.
  • Concerns over EV resale value and repair costs have increased since early 2024, adding to the hesitancy around adoption.
  • The trend towards purchasing medium SUVs continues, with 32 per cent of respondents considering this body type for their next vehicle.
  • Higher-income households are nearly twice as likely to consider purchasing an EV compared to those on lower incomes.
  • Rural households remain significantly less inclined to purchase an EV compared to metro-based households.
  • Over the last 10 months support for governments incentivising EVs has reduced from 69 per cent to 62 per cent.
  • Support for a fuel efficiency standard is overwhelming, with 78 per cent of respondents supporting the policy.

“These findings underscore the importance of ensuring that policies aimed at boosting EV uptake consider affordability and infrastructure accessibility. With the recently introduced New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) now in effect, it is crucial that the framework supports consumer choice without compromising vehicle affordability,” Mr. Voortman added.

“If EV adoption is to accelerate, industry and government must work together to address cost concerns and improve the value proposition for consumers.”

 

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AADA Releases Pre-Budget Submission and Calls on Major Parties to Protect Australian Businesses

The Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA), the peak body for franchised new car and truck Dealers, has today released their pre-budget submission calling on the Federal Government to implement a range of measures in response to Australian Dealers losing confidence to invest in the automotive transition.

Over the past several years the AADA has recorded an increased number of disputes and threats of non-renewal of franchise agreements between offshore car manufacturers and local car Dealers since General Motors terminated the Holden brand in Australia.

“We have seen in recent years the willingness of some manufacturers to drag Australian Dealers through the courts where they are regularly drowned out in legal costs by fortune 500 companies. Constant threats of non-renewal of franchising agreements for Dealers not meeting unrealistic manufacturer demands undermines their appetite to invest and employ Australians,” said AADA CEO, James Voortman.

“The AADA is calling on both major parties to ensure there is a level playing field so that Australian Dealers have the confidence to invest in a nationally distributed Dealer network which has served consumers buying and servicing their vehicles so well for so long,”

“We know that the industry is going through a fundamental change and we are seeing a record number of new entrants emerging in the Australian market. It is essential that in their urgency to set up Dealer networks, these brands must operate under a fair and reasonable framework that governs their relations with Australian Dealers. That is why the AADA is calling on both major parties to commit to protecting Australian businesses,” Mr Voortman said.

The suite of measures the AADA is calling for comes off the back of Australian Mercedes-Benz Dealers heading back to court in March to appeal the Federal Court Decision which ruled in favour of the Stuttgart-based company, which changed its distribution to an agency sales model in 2021.

Mr Voortman, who this week returned from the United States where the key topic of discussion is how the automotive industry will respond to the Trump Administration’s withdrawal of incentives for the uptake of EVs, states “whenever I speak with Dealers across the United States, they are shocked to find out how vulnerable Australian Dealers are to changes in the market. With the emergence of new brands and technology, it is only appropriate that the Australian market now mirrors the protections found in the US.”

In the pre-budget submission, AADA is calling on a range of measures to be introduced such as giving Dealers protections against unfair trading practices and extending the ban of unfair contract terms, which will go some way to addressing the power imbalance between manufacturers and franchised new car Dealers. The AADA advocates that this in turn will encourage new entrants in the market whilst improving competition and productivity but not at the expense of existing Australian businesses.

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End of Year Used Car Market Brings More Opportunities to Buyers

The December edition of the Automotive Insight Report (AIR) shows that the used car market observed a 3.8% drop in supply after months of oversupply, with listings falling to 322,532. However, the market continues to favour buyers with sales observing a significant decline of 8.1% to 181,724, offering consumers ample opportunity to strike a good deal during the festive period.

“Average days to sell have increased to 48.7, the highest since October, suggests that sellers are dealing with slower moving stock. This trend is expected to continue in 2025 as the growing oversupply of new vehicles creates a spillover effect into the used car market,” said AADA CEO James Voortman.

“All states but Northern Territory and Western Australia experienced a fall in the number of cars listed for sale,” he said.

Retained values remain on the downward trajectory, with almost every vehicle segment across every age category experiencing a drop in value for the month, with the exception of LCV-Utes in the 2-5 year age categories. Oversupply of new vehicles is negatively impacting retained values for used EVs as well, potentially prompting sellers to hold on to their vehicles for shorter periods of time.

“Average days to sell a used EV have returned to August levels, with Western Australia and South Australia experiencing increased demand, as reflected in a 19.8% and 10.7% rise in EV sales, respectively,” said Mr Voortman.

In the passenger segment, the Ford Mustang holds value best at 97.0% in the 2-4 year age category while the Toyota Yaris maintains top spot at 97.5% in the 5-7 year age category. In the SUV category, the Suzuki Jimny continues to hold top spot at 110.7% in the 2-4 year but is replaced by the Toyota Landcruiser in the 5-7 year old category at 87.9%.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE AIR FOR DECEMBER

  • 181,724 vehicles were sold in December, a decline of 8.1% compared to the previous month.
  • Northern Territory and Western Australia were the only two states experiencing a jump in listings by 7.5% and 0.5% respectively.
  • 322,532 used cars were listed for sale in December, a decline of 3.8% from the previous month.
  • All but Western Australia and South Australia experienced a decline in used EV sales.
  • Average time to sell a used car has gone up to 48.7 days.
  • Every vehicle segment across every age category experienced a drop in retained value for the month, with the exception of LCV-Utes in the 2-5 year age categories.
  • The Ford Ranger remains Australia’s best-selling used car, followed by the Toyota Hilux.
  • In EVs, MG MG4 regained its position as the best-selling vehicle.

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Supply Frees Up Prior to Christmas

The November edition of the Automotive Insight Report (AIR) indicates an ongoing cooling demand for used cars, with sales experiencing a decline of 2.3% to 197,652 compared to last month. In contrast, used car listings continue to grow, rising by 5.4% to 335,148 in November.

“This trend is likely to persist as more affordable new vehicles enter the market, prompting buyers to upgrade sooner and increasing the supply of used cars, which will affect price sensitivity,” said AADA CEO James Voortman.

“While the average days to sell have dropped to January levels, they remain higher compared to other months, except October,” he said.

“The Northern Territory stands out among the states, with a tight market reflected by a 30.5% increase in sales and a 12.3% decline in listings,” said Mr Voortman.

“Sales have declined across all fuel categories, with EVs experiencing the largest drop (down 8.3%), followed by PHEVs (down 7.4%). This could be attributed to the growing supply of cheaper new BEV and PHEV vehicles entering the market, expanding used-car inventory and driving up holding costs,” he said.

Retained values continue to steadily decline, with almost every vehicle segment across every age category experiencing a drop in value for the month, with the exception of passenger vehicles in 3-4 year old category. On the other hand, retained values of used EVs in the 5-year-old category have declined by 4.7% to 48.5% in November compared to October, reflecting the slowing demand for used EVs.

In the passenger segment, Audi RS3 retains value the most at 97.4% in the 2-4 year old category while the Toyota Yaris continues to lead at 95.3% in the 5-7 year-old category. In the SUV category, the Suzuki Jimny retains top spot in both the 2-4 year and 5-7 year old category at 111.3% and 110.1% respectively.

“While the average time to sell a used EV has dropped to 61.6 days (down from 67.3 last month), this is still much higher than the beginning of the year, where days to sell sat in the low to mid 50s. This can be linked to the rising supply of used EVs, as observed across all states but the Northern Territory, where supply is significantly outpacing demand, presenting consumers with more options,” said Mr. Voortman.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE AIR FOR NOVEMBER

  • 197,652 vehicles were sold in November, a decline of 2.3% compared to the previous month.
  • Northern Territory and Tasmania were the only two states experiencing a jump in sales by 30.5% and 2% respectively.
  • 335,148 used cars were listed for sale in November, an increase of 5.4% from the previous month.
  • All but ACT and Northern Territory experienced a decline in used EV sales.
  • Average time to sell a used car has dropped to 47 days.
  • Every vehicle segment across every age category experienced a drop in retained value for the month, with the exception of passenger vehicles in 3-4 year old category.
  • The Ford Ranger remains Australia’s best-selling used car, followed by the Toyota Hilux.
  • In EVs, Tesla Model 3 overtook MG MG4 as the best-selling vehicle.

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Buyer’s Market as Used Car Listings Surge

The October edition of the Automotive Insight Report (AIR) saw used car sales drop by 3.2% to 202,355 compared to last month. Meanwhile, used car listings have grown by 1% to 317,861, indicating a buyers market as used car supply continues to outpace demand.

“The average days to sell has increased from 46.4 days last month to 49 days in October, the highest it has been since December last year,” said AADA CEO Mr James Voortman.

“When it comes to fuel types, petrol and diesel cars still account for almost 95% of all sales. However, consumers are gradually turning towards more fuel efficient options with a greater variety and more affordable options now available. Sales of conventional petrol and diesel vehicles have dropped by 4.5% and 2.3%, while PHEVs are still the top pick for buyers, with EVs close behind – both seeing strong sales jumps of 27.1% and 22.3%,” he said.

“As is to be expected in an oversupplied market, retained values remain on a downward trajectory with every vehicle segment across every age category experiencing a drop in value for the month. Retained values of used EVs in the 1-3 year old category have declined while the older models appear to hold their value better,” said Mr Voortman.

Small vehicles in the passenger segment maintain their lead in strongest value retention, with the Kia Picanto replacing the Audi RS3 from last month, at 95.6% in the 2-4 category. The Toyota Yaris remains unbeatable in the 5-7 year old category at 95.4%. In the SUV category, the Suzuki Jimny continues to lead in both the 2-4 year and 5-7 year old category at 113.4% and 114.0% respectively.

Given the interest in EVs, the October AIR has provided a snapshot of Australia’s used EV market which is reflected in retained values well below average.

“Average days to sell used EVs has climbed to 67.3 days, which is no surpise given the significant oversupply of used EVs. With Trump’s presidential win and further anticipated rise in tariffs on Chinese vehicles, we’re seeing more Chinese-made cars – especially EVs – heading for Australia,” said Mr Voortman. “This is pushing car makers to offer steeper discounts on new cars, making it difficult for used-car sellers to move stock,” he said.

“The MG4 EV was by far and away the best selling used EV in October, recording sales growth of almost 85% on the previous month and selling double the units of its next closest competitor,” he said.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE AIR FOR OCTOBER

  • 202,355 vehicles were sold in October, a decline of 3.2% compared to the previous month.
  • Victoria was the only state to observe a jump in sales by 0.2% to 49,463.
  • 317,861 used cars were listed for sale in September, an increase of 1 % from the previous month.
  • Northern Territory was the only state to observe a significant decline in sales of used EVs.
  • Average time to sell a used car has increased to 49 days.
  • Every vehicle segment across every age category experienced a drop in retained value for the month.
  • The Ford Ranger remains Australia’s best-selling used car, followed by the Toyota Hilux.
  • In EVs, MG MG4 was the best-selling vehicle followed by the popular Tesla Model 3.

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Used Cars Taking Longer to Sell Amid Oversupply

The September edition of the Automotive Insight Report (AIR) shows that while we saw a modest 1% uptick in used car sales to 209,102, used car listings continued to increase this month by 5.2% to 314,672, continuing a trend of month-on-month increases in listings since May.

“The average days to sell has increased to 46.4, the highest it has been since January. This suggests that the growing oversupply of used vehicles is having an impact on sellers, and with retained values continuing to head south, now looks to be a good time for motivated consumers to seek a deal in a buyers market,” said AADA CEO Mr James Voortman.

“Looking at the states, supply increased across Australia except in the Northern Territory, however demand for used vehicles is a mixed bag, with some states recording significant decreases (ACT down 11.2%) and others recording moderate increases (NSW up 3.5%),” he said.

“Sales of used EVs have surged by 17.3% compared to last month, marking the highest monthly increase observed this year. However, EVs remain by far the most oversupplied fuel type, a trend which has been compounded by a 23% surge in EVs listed in September,” said Mr Voortman.

“Retained values steadily declined, with almost every vehicle segment across every age category experiencing a drop in value for the month, and with more granular retained values data released this month, we can see that Utes are holding their value best at the two year mark but are quickly overtaken by passenger vehicles in the 3-7 year old categories,” he said.

Small vehicles in the passenger segment continue to demonstrate the strongest value retention, with the Audi RS3 claiming the top position at 101.9% in the 2-4 category, breaking Toyota’s longstanding reign. However, the Toyota Yaris maintains the lead at 94.7% in the 5-7 year old category. In the SUV category, the Suzuki Jimny remains dominant in the 2-4 year old category at 113.0%, while the Toyota Land Cruiser has taken the top spot in the 5-7 year-old segment at 88.3%.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE AIR FOR SEPTEMBER

  • 209,102 vehicles were sold in September, recording a jump of 1.1% compared to the previous month.
  • Northern Territory was the only state to observe a decline in supply by 9.1% to 1558 compared to August.
  • 314,672 used cars were listed for sale in September, an increase of 5.2% from the previous month.
  • ACT (-11.2%) and NT (-6.0%) continue to be the worst performers in terms of used car sales.
  • Average time to sell a used car is 46.4 days, just under the high point of 47.7 this year in January.
  • Retained values have consistently declined with passenger vehicles holding their value best in the 3-7 year old category and utes holding their value best in the 2 year old category.
  • The Ford Ranger remains Australia’s best-selling used car, followed by the Toyota Hilux.

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August Used Car Market Sees Budget Savvy Buyers Turning to Hybrids

The August edition of the Automotive Insight Report (AIR) shows softening used car sales with the exception of hybrids, which are proving popular for cost conscious buyers.

The monthly used car market data published by the AADA and Autograb shows a jump in the listings of used cars by 4.9% to 299,147 while sales declined by 3.6% to 206, 804.

Despite the increase in supply, the average days to sell have continued to decrease, reaching a new low of 42.7 over the past 12 months, indicating sellers are motivated and buyers are ready to snap up a good deal.

“In line with the new car sales trends, demand has decreased for used cars, with all states, except South Australia and Tasmania, recording a drop in sales,” said AADA CEO James Voortman.

“Western Australia saw the largest increase in used car supply, with listings up by 15.1%. In contrast, the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory were the only regions with a tightening market, recording significant supply drops of 15.4% and 14.9%, respectively,” Mr Voortman said.

“Supply of used cars increased across all vehicle categories, with SUVs and LCVs showing the highest growth, rising by 6.8% and 10.2%, respectively. This surge could partially explain the greater decline in retained values of SUVs and LCV – utes relative to passenger counterparts, leading sellers to keep their vehicles for shorter periods,” he said.

“There are some correlations to the new car market in terms of popularity of hybrid vehicles with hybrids experiencing an increase in sales, while petrol, diesel and electric all experienced a drop in sales,” Mr Voortman said.

“In comparison to July, the used EV market is now facing an oversupply, with sales seeing the largest drop among all fuel types, down 8.3% to 1,637. This may result in more competitive pricing, shaping buyer preferences as disposable incomes erode,” he said.

“Retained values continue to decline with every vehicle segment across every age category experiencing a drop in value for the month,” he said.

Small vehicles and performance vehicles in the passenger segment continue to hold their value the best, with the Toyota 86 replacing the Toyota Corolla for the top position at 98.4% in the 2-4 year old category and the Toyota Yaris maintaining the lead at 94.8% in the 5-7 year old category. In the SUV category, the Suzuki Jimny continues to dominate, holding the top spot in both the 2-4 (114.0%) and 5-7 year old (116.4%) SUV categories.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE AIR FOR AUGUST

  • 206,804 vehicles were sold in August, a decrease of 3.6% compared to the previous month.
  • Western Australia recorded the highest jump in supply of used cars, rising by 15.1% to 31, 015 whereas South Australia and the Northern Territory were the only two states where demand increased, by 0.3% and 1.8% respectively.
  • 299,147 used cars were listed for sale in August, an increase of 4.9% from the previous month.
  • Sales were weakest in ACT (-29.1%) and Northern Territory (- 37.4%), reflecting a significant drop in sales compared to last month.
  • Average time to sell a used car is 42.7 days, the lowest it has been over the past 12 months.
  • Retained values continue their gradual decline with passenger vehicles holding their value best in the 2-4 year age bracket (81.1%) as well as for the older 5-7 year category (67.3%).
  • The Ford Ranger remains Australia’s best-selling used car, followed by the Toyota Hilux.

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Used Car Market Tightens as Sales Surge in July

The July edition of the Automotive Insight Report (AIR) indicates that the market for used cars is tightening, with rising sales and falling listings leading to a reduced gap between demand and supply.

The monthly used car market data put out by the AADA and Autograb shows a drop in listings of used cars by 5.8% to 285,133 while sales have observed a significant jump of 11.6% to 214,588.

The average days to sell have stayed relatively steady compared with last month at 43.6, yet this figure is still marginally lower than June and is the lowest in the past 12 months.

“With the commencement of the new financial year, buyers have flocked to the used car market taking advantage of better supply and lower prices as they make an effort to escape the rising cost-of-living pressures,” said AADA CEO James Voortman.

“All states except Tasmania have experienced a drop in used car listings, while Northern Territory is the only state where sales remain sluggish, with a notable decline of 15.6%. However, this reduction in supply should be considered in the context of a significant increase in supply since the start of the year,” he said.

“Demand for used cars has strengthened across all categories, with passenger vehicles showing the largest growth, rising by 13.1% to 88,686. Meanwhile, the supply of EVs saw the most significant decline (-16.1%), even as demand increased by 12.2%. This suggests that people are holding onto their EVs for longer, tightening the supply in the used EV market,” he said.

“One of the trends we have seem emerge from the start of the year in an increase in the proportion of cars being listed privately with a subsequent reduction in Dealer listings. Vehicles sold by Dealers have remained around the 40% mark suggesting they are pricing vehicles to sell,” said AutoGrab Chief Commercial Officer Saxon Odgers.

“Retained values continue to decline with every vehicle segment across every age category experiencing a drop in value for the month,” he said.

Small vehicles in the passenger segment have once again proven to hold their value the best, with the Toyota Corolla and Toyota Yaris maintaining their top spots at 97.6% in the 2-4 year old category and 96.7% in the 5-7 year old category, respectively. While the Suzuki Jimny continues its retained value reign, holding the top spot in both the 2-4 (115.6%) and 5-7 year old (115.8%) SUV category.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE AIR FOR JULY

  • 214,588 vehicles were sold, an increase of 11.6% compared to the previous month.
  • Tasmania was the only state to experience an increase in the supply of used cars, rising by 0.3%, while the Northern Territory was the only state to see a decline in demand, falling by 15.6%.
  • 285,133 used cars were listed for sale in July, a drop of 5.8% from the previous month.
  • Sales in Victoria rebounded to take the top position (14.1%), while ACT (+1.4%) and NT (-15.6%) were weakest in terms of sales.
  • Average time to sell a used car is 43.6 days, the lowest it has been over the past 12 months.
  • Retained values continue their gradual decline with passenger vehicles holding their value best in the 2-4 year age bracket (82.1%) as well as for the older 5-7 year category (68.1%).
  • The Ford Ranger remains Australia’s best-selling used car, followed by the Toyota Hilux.

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Used Car Listings and Sales Surge at Mid-Year Point

The Australian Automotive Dealer Association and AutoGrab are pleased to release the first Mid 2024 – Automotive Insights Report (AIR).

The data shows that 1,211,484 used cars were listed for sale in the first six months of the year, representing a 25% increase compared to the same time last year, driven by record-high new car sales.

This growing inventory has been accompanied by growing sales, with 1,112,580 used cars sold, an increase of 16% on the same period last year.

“The surge in listings has seen used car values decrease across every vehicle segment. National weighted average retained values for utes are down 11.8%, SUVs down 8.2% and passenger vehicles experiencing the smallest decline, down 5.9%,” said AADA CEO Mr James Voortman.

“There is a clear trend of improving used car supply resulting in lower prices which in turn has led to higher sales,” he said.

“This data also demonstrates growth in used cars being listed for sale privately, with the proportion of dealer listings down 7.5%,” said AutoGrab Chief Commercial Officer Saxon Odgers.

“The Private market share has risen to 67.5% (817,751 listings) compared with 59.9% (576,531 listings) in the prior corresponding year and Private sellers take 13 fewer days to sell compared to Dealers,” said Mr Odgers.

“The data also shows that Dealer sales remain steady with the average time taken for a Dealer to sell a vehicle at the 50 day mark, which is consistent with the same period last year. However, Dealer listing price drop statistics are showing an increase on last year, suggesting that the growing supply in the market is being felt by sellers across the board,” he said.

“Sales of used hybrids and EVs were strong for the first half of 2024 with both categories growing by around 80%. While both categories experienced a reduction in value, one-year-old hybrids still command a 3.5% higher sale price compared to their original retail price, while EVs have depreciated by -17% in value,” said Mr Voortman.

Toyota is the used car market leader capturing almost 17 % market share. The Ford Ranger continues to dominate used car sales with 38,804 units sold YTD, followed closely behind by the Toyota Hilux with 34,736 units sold YTD.

The Mid 2024 Automotive Insights Report shows that:

  • Across Australia 1,211,484 vehicles were listed for sale YTD and in that period 1,112,580 were sold.
  • Increasing demand for used cars, with sales experiencing a 16% per cent growth compared to that same period last year.
  • Sales are up in almost every fuel type, with PHEVs experiencing the largest growth in sales at 112.9%.
  • Toyota was the top selling used car brand with 16.8% market share, followed by Mazda (8.3%) and Ford (7.9%).
  • The Ford Ranger was the top selling vehicle with 38,804 units, followed closely behind by the Toyota Hilux with 34,736 units.

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